We consider endogenous binary treatment with multiple binary instruments. We propose a novel limited monotonicity (LiM) assumption that is generally weaker than alternative monotonicity assumptions in the literature. We define and identify (under LiM) the combined compliers local average treatment effect (CC-LATE), which is arguably a more policy-relevant parameter than the weighted average of LATEs identified by two-stage least squares (TSLS), and is valid under more general conditions. Estimating the CC-LATE is trivial, equivalent to running TSLS with one constructed instrument on a subsample. We use our CC-LATE to empirically assess how knowledge of HIV status influences protective behaviors. If time permits I will also present my recent work on the Synthetic Control Method.

Startup companies solve many of today’s most challenging problems, such as the decarbonisation of the economy or the development of novel life-saving vaccines. Startups are a vital source of innovation, yet the most innovative are also the least likely to survive. In this research project, we aim to disentangle the determinants of success in entrepreneurship at three levels, ranging from the personalities in the founder team (mico-level), the role of startup incubator programmes (meso-level), and the larger innovation ecosystem (macro-level) in driving the success of startup companies. The project utilises data science, computational, and complex systems research methods. In the talk, we focus mainly on our foundational research study, ‘The impact of founder personalities on startup success’, published in Nature Scientific Reports (McCarthy et al., 2023, more than 86,000 downloads to date) to show that founder personality traits are a significant feature of a firm’s ultimate success. We draw upon detailed data about the success of a large-scale global sample of startups. We find that the Big Five personality traits of startup founders across 30 dimensions significantly differ from that of the population at large. Key personality facets that distinguish successful entrepreneurs include a preference for variety, novelty and starting new things (openness to adventure), like being the centre of attention (lower levels of modesty) and being exuberant (higher activity levels). We do not find one ’Founder-type’ personality; instead, six different personality types appear. Our results also demonstrate the benefits of larger, personality-diverse teams in startups, which show an increased likelihood of success. The findings emphasise the role of the diversity of personality types as a novel dimension of team diversity that influences performance and success.

The aging of the general physician workforce in developed countries is expected to lead to increased practice closures. Hence, concerns arise regarding the health effects of such closures, particularly for patients facing them during critical life stages such as pregnancy. However, no study exists to date on the health effects of general physi- cians’ (GP) practice closures during pregnancy. I assess the effects of such closures during pregnancy on birth outcomes in Denmark. I compare the birth outcomes of mothers experiencing practice closures within nine months post-conception to those facing closures nine months pre-conception. I find a small to medium-sized adverse effect of discontinuity in care on birth outcomes. The negative effect on birth weight is especially pronounced when the closure happens in the last trimester of pregnancy. Consistently, mothers affected by GP practice closures during pregnancy experience small disruptions in healthcare provision at the extensive and at the intensive margin.

In this study, we use the concept of functional affordances of information systems to develop a novel theoretical framework that links firms’ digitalization intensity to their ecological performance. Specifically, we propose that digitalization intensity reduces firms’ impact on the natural environment and enhances their capability for ecological innovations. To contextualize these relationships, we introduce corporate governance and service industry membership as essential contingencies for this link. Results of our panel regression analyses widely support our theorizing.